The Suicide Region: Option Games and the Race to Artificial General Intelligence (opens in new tab)

arXiv:2512.07526v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Standard real options theory predicts delay in exercising the option to invest or deploy when extreme asset volatility or technological uncertainty are present. However, in the current race to develop artificial general intelligence (AGI), sovereign actors are exhibiting behaviors contrary to theoretical predictions: the US and China are accelerating AI investment despite acknowledging the potential for catastrophic failure from AGI mi...