The Dynamic and Endogenous Behavior of Re-Offense Risk: An Agent-Based Simulation Study of Treatment Allocation in Incarceration Diversion Programs (opens in new tab)

Incarceration-diversion treatment programs aim to improve societal reintegration and reduce recidivism, but limited capacity forces policymakers to make prioritization decisions that often rely on risk assessment tools. While predictive, these tools typically treat risk as a static, individual attribute, which overlooks how risk evolves over time and how treatment decisions shape outcomes through social interactions. In this paper, we develo...