Causal Persuasion (opens in new tab)

We propose a model of causal persuasion, in which a sender selectively discloses a set of variables together with their true joint distribution and proposes a subjective causal model that binds them. A receiver is persuaded by this model only if the data conclusively identifies the causal link of interest. We characterize when such persuasion succeeds or fails, and how easily it can be achieved. We further show that if the receiver holds a pre-e...