How War Distorts International Trade: Gravity-Model Evidence from Europe after the Russia-Ukraine Conflict (opens in new tab)

This paper investigates how geopolitical conflict reshapes trade patterns, focusing on the economic consequences of the Russo-Ukrainian war on European and global trade flows. War is conceptualized as a shock that increases bilateral trade costs within a structural gravity model, rather than as a force acting against trade flows, amplifying frictions in territories closer to the epicenter and reducing the economic attractiveness of major trade r...