Nonparametric Bayesian Policy Learning (opens in new tab)

I propose Nonparametric Bayesian Policy Learning (NBPL) as a framework for uncertainty-aware treatment choice. I consider a decision-maker (DM) seeking to select an expected welfare-maximizing treatment rule using observable characteristics. A key observation is that, for a given welfare criterion and policy class, uncertainty about welfare-relevant objects is entirely induced by uncertainty about a reduced-form distribution. I assume the DM pla...