Recession Detection Using Real Time GDP Data (opens in new tab)

This paper examines whether real-time GDP announcements can reliably identify business-cycle turning points. Using U.S. real-time GDP vintages from 1947 to 2021, we construct 4,356 recession indicators based on alternative smoothing methods and scaling variations. We then combine these indicators with alternative thresholds to generate 137,457 perfect recession classifiers. The selected classifiers identify all 12 historical recessions without g...