Adaptive COVID-19 Trajectory Forecasting Using MAB-Inspired Ensemble Weighting (opens in new tab)

Forecasting epidemic trajectories is important for public health decision-making, but no single model is consistently reliable across epidemic phases and forecasting settings. We evaluate Multi-Armed Bandit (MAB)-inspired adaptive weighting strategies for combining epidemic forecasting models when component-model performance changes over time. Using U.S. COVID-19 incidence data from three epidemic waves, we compare UCB, EXP3, and epsilon-greedy ...