What Capital After Labor? Forecasting the Talent ROI Transition in the Human-AI Era (opens in new tab)

AI augmentation breaks the accounting link between labor time and productive contribution, yet firms continue to evaluate talent through time-based overhead bundles. This paper develops a forecasting framework for the transition from time-based talent accounting to output-based talent ROI in the human-AI era. The framework centres on Theorem 3 (ROI Inversion at {\tau}*) as the empirical spine, with four mechanism theorems: overhead non-additivit...