A cubical formalisation of conditional independence, Bayesian conditioning, and Pearl's d-separation soundness (opens in new tab)

The standard convex-algebra interchange axiom, common to probability-monad formalisations since Stone, is provably too weak to support full Bayesian conditioning. We make this precise in Cubical Agda: finite distributions as a higher inductive type, conditional independence as a cubical path between kernels, recursive Bayesian conditioning as a total function on a full-support fragment. Lifting conditioning to the full HIT exposes a structural...