Bayesian modelling of herd-level infection dynamics in cattle: Local spread as the primary driver of Salmonella Dublin persistence on \"Oland (opens in new tab)

Salmonella Dublin (S. Dublin), a zoonotic serotype adapted to cattle, causes animal welfare issues and economic losses. The disease has proven particularly challenging to control in \"Oland, Sweden. This study uses Bayesian simulation-based inference of bulk tank milk sample results to analyse the S. Dublin infection dynamics in \"Oland cattle. The infection process was formulated as a dynamic state-space model and particle Markov-chain Monte Ca...