An LLM benchmark is only useful for as long as it's hard (opens in new tab)

The general shape of the problem is that every public LLM benchmark is on a saturation clock that runs from the moment of its publication to the moment a model's training corpus has eaten it. The clock has been running, on the visible benchmarks of the last five years, for somewhere between twelve and thirty months before each one is no longer useful for differentiating frontier models. The benchmarks are not failing. They are doing exactly what they were designed to do, in the order they wer...