When SuSiE Says '95% Confident', Is It? (opens in new tab)

Benchmarking the Honesty of Fine-Mapping Credible Sets Fine-mapping has a promise built into its output, and almost nobody checks whether the promise is kept. When you run SuSiE on a GWAS locus, it hands you a credible set: a small group of variants that, at a stated confidence level like 95%, should contain the true causal variant. That 95% is a claim about reality. Among all the loci where SuSiE reports a 95% credible set, the true causal variant should be inside the set 95% of the time. Is...