Chronos vs Toto: Zero-Shot Forecasting Benchmark Results (opens in new tab)

Introduction Good forecasts help with capacity planning and quieter alerts. But one traffic spike or memory leak can make any forecast useless. The goal is simple: prove your forecast beats a naive baseline and stays reliable under uncertainty. In this post, we compare two forecasting models, Chronos (Chronos‑Bolt) and Toto, on telemetry from Prometheus and OpenSearch. We judge them with two easy metrics: MASE for point accuracy and CRPS for the quality of uncertainty. Figure: Forecast fan ch...