Estimating probabilities of malaria importation in southern Mozambique through modelling P. falciparum genomics and mobility patterns (opens in new tab)

Imported malaria is a critical obstacle to achieving elimination in low transmission settings, but importation classification tools combining human mobility and parasite genomics are lacking. A Bayesian model combining epidemiological, human mobility, and parasite genetic data was developed to estimate malaria importation and geographic origins of Plasmodium falciparum cases. Using microhaplotype-based genetic relatedness from 1605 samples across nine Mozambican provinces in 2022, the study f...