The Strait of Hormuz will remain closed, possibly until 2028 (opens in new tab)

Earlier today the U.S. proposed a peace deal, which Iran predictably rejected. My forecasts tend to be optimistic, but I predict Trump has boxed himself in and that his options are limited to the strait remaining closed for far longer than anyone possibly expects, until midterms or even 2028, or that Trump will have to deploy troops to secure it–the dreaded land war that everyone was hoping to avoid.