Why human behavior is not as unpredictable/random as assumed (opens in new tab)

It’s commonly assumed that forecasting–especially as it pertains to economics, geopolitics, or finance–ranges from hard to impossible, owing to the claimed unpredictiabiblity of human behavior. You’ll often see books, articles, and TED talks about how people act unpredictably, so one may be inclined to think it’s hopeless. I have never bought into this, and my own success counters this notion. At this point, given all the above, it’s incontrovertible or indisputable I am the greatest macro fo...