The Market’s Unpredictability (opens in new tab)

EARLIER THIS SPRING, Emil Verner, an economist at MIT, made an observation: The stock market, he said, seemed to be exhibiting “excess tranquility.” Despite an ongoing war, inflation and other negative headlines, investors seemed surprisingly unfazed. The market was on track for its fourth year in a row of positive returns. Through May, it had gained 11%. But no sooner did Verner make this observation that the market did begin to wobble. Last Friday, the Nasdaq index dropped more than 4%, and...