OECD cuts 2026 growth forecast over Gulf disruption (opens in new tab)

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development lowered its 2026 global growth forecast to 2.8% from 2.9%, saying the war in the Middle East and disruption to Gulf energy supplies have weakened the outlook for output and inflation. In a baseline case in which Gulf oil and gas exports begin returning to pre-conflict levels in the third quarter of 2026, the OECD expects growth to slow from 3.4% in 2025 to 2.8% in 2026, then recover to 3.1% in 2027. The OECD also set out a prolonged-d...