Why Ukraine needs Russia's terminal defeat (opens in new tab)

Five years into the full-scale conflict, it has become clear that the model of strategic deterrence – the "steel porcupine" that Ursula von der Leyen often invokes when speaking about Ukraine – offers no guarantee of resilience and long-term peace. The "steel porcupine" model assumes that, given Russia's significant resource advantage, Ukraine's only realistic strategy is to build a defense so strong that continued aggression becomes prohibitively costly for Russia. However, as of 2026, this