Nivida keeps selling more GPUs than the datacenter capacity that came online. estimate of 560mw for Q1 2026. Up significantly from 1270mw surplus over entire 2025. (opens in new tab)

While the excess sales can partially be explained by converting CPU and bitcoin servers, and upgrading functional or burnt out older GPUs, there is finite replaceable powered capacity, in addition to small growth rate of datacenters under active construction that can hope for 2026 opening. “Grey market” diversion to China can be a hidden source of sales. This is a refined estimate based on taking out networking/software from each of NVidia’s sales channels. Hyperscalers rarely buy commercial ...