Policy-Constrained Growth: Government spending and economic recovery in Brazil during Lula's third term (opens in new tab)

By Ricardo Summa, Guilherme Haluska and Franklin SerranoDespite headwinds from higher interest rates in the US and at home, the Brazilian economy is nevertheless emerging from a period of prolonged stagnation. After growing an average of 0.2 percent a year between 2015 and 2022, national growth averaged 3.3 percent annually during 2023–2024, the first two years of President Lula’s third term. Though quite modest in comparison to the massive social needs of a developing country, this is still ...