The macroeconomic perspectives: The GDP and employment numbers and the war in Iran (opens in new tab)

The new GDP and employment numbers are out, and they confirm something I have been arguing for a while, namely: the US economy is slowing down, but it is not in a recession, and the tariffs did not cause the stagflation that so many commentators confidently predicted.Real GDP growth slowed again in the most recent quarter, but it still expanded at about 1.4 percent. Real GDP growth is slower than in 2024, but it was still above 2 percent (see below). That is clearly below the pace we saw in t...