A fifth of the world’s oil supplies typically flow through the Strait of Hormuz. Amid America’s disastrous war of choice against Iran, it’s now been closed since March. As the United States and Iran edge closer to a prospective deal to end that war, analysts have marveled at the fact that oil markets have taken it mostly in stride. Prices never soared to the $200-per-barrel heights many feared. Before news of a possible agreement earlier this month, the price of a barrel of Brent crude—the gl...

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