How we predict the FIFA World Cup 2026 with a Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson model (opens in new tab)

We're building Onside Arena — an open AI football analytics platform for the FIFA World Cup 2026 and FPL. Live model record: 75% of MD1 winners called correctly. Here's the technical core. TL;DR Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson on team goal expectations Bayesian-shrunk ratings learned from 12 past World Cups + 8 Premier League seasons (~32K matches) Live recalibration after every played match in the tournament Outputs per-match win/draw probabilities, scoreline distributions, and Monte Carlo sim...