Aschenbrenner's Receipts (opens in new tab)

× In June 2024, Leopold Aschenbrenner published a 165-page essay called and committed himself to a chain of dated forecasts. Test-time compute would be the next paradigm. Power, not chips, would be the binding constraint on the US AI buildout. The Marcellus shale would end up powering data centres, not the hyperscalers’ climate pledges. By May 2026 those calls have landed. Eight of his concrete technology and infrastructure predictions have confirmed cleanly. Eight others have falsified: volu...