How Wise is the Crowd in Prediction Markets (opens in new tab)

If you've ever scrolled through Polymarket or Kalshi wondering whether the "wisdom of crowds" is actually wisdom—or just organized noise—you're not alone. A new paper, "How Wise is the Crowd? Bias and Edge in Prediction Markets," tears into the microstructure of modern prediction markets to ask a practical question: Who's actually making money, and who's just paying for the privilege of being loud? By engineering a high-frequency data pipeline that ingests tick-level order flow, on-chain wall...