The New York Knicks and the martingale property of calibrated probability forecasts (with some simulation and R code) (opens in new tab)

This long post covers four topics: 1. The Knicks’ stunning series of come-from-behind victories to win the NBA title in 5 games; 2. The martingale property of probability forecasts; 3. An example of learning from simulation; 4. How we (sometimes) … →