NEW from me @reason. Can AI drastically cut budget deficits and even balance the budget - as Musk and Amodei suggest? (opens in new tab)

NEW from me @reason. Can AI drastically cut budget deficits and even balance the budget - as Musk and Amodei suggest? I estimate AI budget effects on productivity, revenues, job displacement benefits, Social Security, health, defense, interest, govt jobs, and govt admin. 🧵 My central estimate is that a healthy AI boom can shave perhaps $600 billion off the 2036 projected budget deficit of $4.4 trillion. Helpful, but not balance. It could be less if most of the gains accrue to (lower-taxed) ca...