When an entire country loses access to fertiliser: Evidence from Sri Lanka's import ban (opens in new tab)

A model of trade and agriculture applied to Sri Lanka’s 2021 chemical fertiliser import ban shows how costly fertiliser shortages can be. However, the model also shows why local field-experiment estimates of fertiliser’s effect on crop yield can exaggerate the economy-wide impact of a nationwide shortage: when fertiliser becomes scarce, wages, crop prices, and production choices adjust, partly cushioning the yield losses. Applying the same framework to a severe fertiliser disruption through t...