Recursive forecasting: Eliciting long-term forecasts from myopic fitness-seekers (opens in new tab)

We’d like to use powerful AIs to answer questions that may take a long time to resolve. But if a model only cares about performing well in ways that are verifiable shortly after answering (e.g., a myopic fitness seeker), it may be difficult to get useful work from it on questions that resolve much later.In this post, I’ll describe a proposal for eliciting good long-horizon forecasts from these models. Instead of asking a model to directly predict a far-future outcome, we can recursively:Ask i...