The $10 Trillion Fight: Modeling a US-China War Over Taiwan (opens in new tab)

The island at the center of the artificial intelligence boom—and increasingly the global economy—lies on geological and geopolitical fault lines. Taiwan, the producer of most of the world’s advanced semiconductors, faces intensifying pressure from mainland China and growing uncertainty about US support. War doesn’t appear imminent. If it were to erupt, though, the shock to the global economy would be seismic.