FEDS Note: Population Growth and Labor Market Fragility: Lessons from Domestic and International Experiences (opens in new tab)

François de Soyres, Johannes Fleck, William Peterman, Avani Pradhan, and David RatnerLabor market indicators such as employment growth and the unemployment rate are commonly used to assess the cyclical position of the economy (NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee). However, deciphering trend from cycle in these indicators is notoriously difficult and can be especially delicate when underlying trends in the economy shift rapidly.