If AI is normal technology, history is not reassuring. (opens in new tab)

There’s a truism that technology is good - even if it creates winners and losers, it improves the world. Toby Ord argues that the conclusions about the benefits of technology is sensitive to the end of humanity - but this jumps over the transitions by starting from the assumption[1] that “long-term progress in science, technology, and values have tended to make people’s lives longer, freer, and more prosperous.” That is, looking back historically, the net impact misses the immense immediate h...