Broad Timelines (opens in new tab)

<p>No-one knows when AI will begin having transformative impacts upon the world. People aren’t sure and shouldn’t be sure: there just isn’t enough evidence to pin it down.&nbsp;</p><p>But we don’t need to wait for certainty. I want to explore what happens if we take our uncertainty seriously — if we act with epistemic humility. What does wise planning look like in a world of deeply uncertain AI timelines?&nbsp;</p><p>I’ll conclude that taking the uncertainty seriously has real implications fo...