How AI Will Save Prediction Markets (opens in new tab)

The first fully-developed formulation of general-purpose prediction markets originated with Robin Hanson's Idea Futures (1990), a technology "intended to aid the evolution of a wide range of ideas, from public policy to the nature of the universe" that "should be able to help us predict and understand our future". Hanson believes that these markets would even be able to solve one of Democracy's greatest weaknesses — "aggregating available information" — via a new type of governance: Futarchy[...