Thoughts on Likelihood of Existential Risks by Misaligned AIs (opens in new tab)

TLDR:AI safety is confusing to navigate, because it is a pre-paradigmatic field composed of people making different, theoretical arguments for why x-risk is likely (or unlikely).Arguments that x-risk is likely are unfalsifiable and have little empirical evidence. This does not mean they’re wrong.Much of your probability of x-risk boils down to your priors, and whether you more heavily weight theory or empiricismI think AI safety is important to work on, but I’m optimistic that alignment will ...