Hyperstition as the Natural Enemy of Rationality (opens in new tab)

If the box contains a diamond,I desire to believe that the box contains a diamond;If the box does not contain a diamond right now, but will contain a diamond if I believe there is a diamond,Uh...Holding unfounded beliefs might sometimes, by some cruel irony, produce better outcomes than being rational.(This post was inspired by a couple cases where the causal effect of belief seems hand-waved away in the Sequences.)"Diseased Thinking"In this essay, Scott suggests that a consequentialist model...