Full automation of AI R&D probably yields a large speed up even without a software-only singularity (opens in new tab)

This is a somewhat technical note. By "software-only singularity", I mean that, after full automation of AI R&D, progress gets faster and faster due to smarter AIs driving increasingly fast rates of improvement in algorithms (overcoming diminishing returns), and that this lasts long enough to yield a large amount of progress (e.g. at least 4 years of progress in 1 year). The equivalent statement in jargon is: r is significantly greater than 1 (implying progress is getting faster and faster) a...