I have no good gears-level model of AI, and the expert views are all over the place (see AI Doc), so the only remaining argument is my physical intuition and a black-box view. Which, in this case, is based on two principles (best called rules of thumb): Copernicanism, where one assumes that humanity is not unique or special among the stars The "Law" of Straight Lines: and start with the latter: the main argument for x-risk, as I understand it, is that AI will become smarter than us in every w...

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