Explaining complex dynamical systems using conditional SHAP analysis with application to multi-variant epidemic dynamics (opens in new tab)

Understanding and explaining the dynamics of complex systems is a critical yet challenging task. Such a challenge often arises from high dimensionality, nonlinearity, and randomness, which together make it difficult to study the key drivers influencing system behavior. One illustrative example is infectious disease dynamics. Outbreaks like COVID-19 have major public-health impacts, and timely vaccines and non-pharmaceutical interventions can lessen them. However, COVID-19, influenza, and othe...