Writing Code vs. Shipping Code: Productivity Effects Across Generations of AI Coding Tools (opens in new tab)

Abstract: How do the productivity effects of AI evolve across successive generations of tools, and to what extent do task-level gains ultimately translate into final output? We study these questions in the context of software development, using data on more than 100,000 GitHub developers combined with their AI usage telemetry. In a matched event study design, we find that autocomplete, interactive coding agents, and autonomous coding agents each significantly increase coding activity (“commit...