Constance Crozier: Forecasting s-curves is hard (opens in new tab)

There was a famous [Covid era chart](https://x.com/clcrozier/status/1251148890595708938) that I always struggle to find, showing how hard it is to estimate an S curve while living through it. in the early days it seems that everything is exploding as an exponential and you always get hypey essays about how YOU, YOU DUMB DUMB, DONT UNDERSTAND EXPONENTIALS LET ME EXPLAIN. and then as things hit invisible asymptotes those same loud voices who write viral essays have curiously moved on to other t...