The Deal That Should Not Have Happened (opens in new tab)

The announcement of a ceasefire between the United States and Iran surprised many observers. The underlying conditions appeared unfavorable to an agreement—and yet a deal emerged. For months, analysts pointed to profound disagreements over Iran's nuclear program, regional influence, sanctions, and ongoing military activity as reasons why the space for agreement was extremely narrow. Now that an MOU is in place, the immediate temptation is to ask whether it will hold—and perhaps it will not—bu...