The Warning Paradox: Why Correct Intelligence Often Fails (opens in new tab)

In the months before Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, the U.S. Intelligence Community did something remarkable. It got the call right—and said so out loud, rather than only in classified internal documents.Intelligence assessments identified the likely invasion, the timing window, and plausible operational scenarios with a level of confidence the IC rarely displays outside classified channels. The CIA director flew to Moscow to deliver the warning directly. Intelligence was declass...