Trump’s Middle East war could push Australia to brink of recession if conflict worsens, budget papers show (opens in new tab)

Worst-case scenario modelling by Treasury shows oil prices as high as $200 a barrel in September quarter and inflation at 7.25% due to Iran warFederal budget 2026 LIVE updates: Australia government budget announcement and speech – latest newsExplore all of our 2026 Australia federal budget coverageGet our breaking news email, free app or daily news podcastAustralia would be pushed to the brink of recession and inflation would surge past 7% if the oil crisis sparked by the Middle East conflict...