Perpetually 5 to 10 Years Away.... (opens in new tab)

I think “AGI” or Artifical General Intelligence will be like nuclear fusion, perpetually 5 to 10 years away. “Ask someone in AI for their timeline, and they’ll tell you when they expect the arrival of AGI—artificial general intelligence—which is sometimes defined as AI technology that can match the abilities of humans at most tasks. As AI’s sophistication has scaled—thanks to faster computers, better algorithms, and more data—timelines have compressed. The leaders of major AI labs… have recen...