On Burning Boats
apmoverflow.xyz·10h
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  • Nov 01, 2025 *

I believe that all our fears are largely due to uncertainty. It’s then intuitive to keep as many doors open “just in case”. Ironically, that intuition often leads to all doors being merely creaked rather than open because of what I call the Efficient Door Hypothesis: the more doors you keep open, the more closed they all become. Every competitive path is crowded with specialists who’ve committed fully. Your discipline, the main resource needed to push past mediocrity, is finite and replenishes slowly. Yes, you may “80/20” each door, but that 80% is precisely where real competition begins. Hedging doesn’t create optionality. Rather, it guarantees you’ll be outcompeted everywhere.1 So, I’ve come …

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