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tough call. the bank of england must decide whether to cut the cost of borrowing and boost a sluggish economy. that’s despite high inflation and huge uncertainty over the looming budget. also coming up. because i’m worth it! tesla investors vote on a pay deal for elon musk that could make him the world’s first trillionaire. plus, rocking on. how a grassroots campaign is saving britain’s small music venues from extinction. live from london this is business today, i’m sally bundock. we start with the cost of borrowing and what is set to be a tough decision for the bank of england in the coming hours. policymakers are weighing up whether to cut interest

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rates again to boost the uk’s sluggish economy. markets predict on balance the central bank will keep rates on hold at 4% this time but it could be closely-fought. here’s what they will be looking at. britain’s economy has been at a standstill. it grew by just 0.1% in august, the latest figures we have. cheaper borrowing would encourage businesses and many households to spend. but the bank’s mandate is what it calls price stability, keeping inflation under control. and prices are still on the rise, inflation was running at 3.8% in september, the highest among rich nations. but some now think it has peaked. the other big factor is of course the chancellor’s budget that rachel reeves will be delivering in less than three weeks’ time. she’s given a strong hint taxes will rise potentially weighing on the economy but also damping down inflation.

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here’s a reminder of what she said on tuesday. i take my decisions on both tax and spend. i will do what is necessary to protect families from high inflation and interest rates, to protect our public services from a return to austerity, and to ensure that the economy that we hand down to future generations is secure with debt under control. if we are to build the future of britain together, we will all have to contribute to that effort. we’ve been speaking to katharine neiss from global asset manager pgim who worked at the bank of england for many years. i asked her whether the chancellor was sending a message to the markets or the bank of england. that’s not clear, who exactly she was sending this message to. but clearly, if we see a budget later this month

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that offers a decisive fiscal consolidation, then that does, of course, open the door for the bank of england to bring interest rates down a bit more quickly, a bit more confidently than perhaps it’s done so far. but ahead of that point, of course, there is still this uncertainty, which is why i think markets are probably leaning a bit more towards the bank of england keeping interest rates at 4% just now at their meeting today. but then in december, what are markets predicting in terms of a cut from the bank of england? i assume most believe a cut will come before christmas. well, that’s indeed the good news. whether or not it happens today or in december or perhaps the month after. i think based on the latest data flow that we’ve seen, we can be reasonably confident that interest rates are coming down, which will offer much

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needed relief to uk businesses and households. so although the individual month is perhaps finely balanced, there is more confidence that interest rates are coming down, not just in the coming months, but i would think further in the first half of 2026. and of course, that’s good news. and katharine, obviously in your role at pgim, you guys are managing assets, you know, almost $1.5 trillion in value. you also had a role at the bank of england previously. what’s your thoughts on the budget in less than three weeks now in terms of what you think might be the chancellor? i think from a markets perspective, one of the most important features to look out for in this budget is, is it a decisive fiscal consolidation? and what i mean by that is, is there sufficient headroom in this budget that we can move away from

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a situation of, really, fragility in these fiscal plans? up until recently, they’ve been very susceptible to pretty small deviations in the outlook relative to the assumptions that went into those projections, which made them very fragile and created a lot of uncertainty. markets generally don’t like uncertainty. so i think a fiscal consolidation that is decisive, that is a bit more robust and resilient to small deviations in outturns will create a lot of uncertainty, and markets should like that and reward the uk for it. when we will get the news from the bank of england, we will of course course tell you. to the us now where in the next few hours, the shareholders of electric car maker tesla will decide how much they think ceo elon musk is worth. they are voting on a pay deal that, if musk meets certain targets in the coming years, could make him a trillionaire.

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erin delmore reports from new york. it’s the biggest bet in tesla’s history. an $878 billion pay package for its ceo, elon musk. investors are set to decide whether to back the proposal. the meeting will shape the future of tesla, and we are asking you as our shareholders to support elon’s leadership. tesla’s board has warned that mr musk might quit if investors vote the pay package down. mr musk has over the last year become synonymous with the doge task force he led and the federal government cuts it enacted. a polarising gamble that had tesla’s stock sliding and sales slumping from the us to europe and beyond. mr musk splits his time among the half dozen or so companies he heads, and one argument for the pay package is that it will incentivise him to spend more of his time and attention on tesla, and that only he can realise the firm’s full potential. the trillions that he’s going to create over the future, i think this is a no-brainer move on the board.

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but some investors warn that the deal would set a damaging precedent. this really will weigh in on how the rest of companies think about pay packages. dr kristen hall is an early tesla investor and the founder and cio of nia impact capital. i would like to see a ceo in place and a ceo compensation package that is designed to really look at how to drive innovation, as well as a sustainable company. so one that’s looking out for all of the employees and not just the one at the top. one thing that hangs in the balance, if investors vote down the historic pay package, they run the risk of elon musk leaving tesla. that could cause the company’s shares to sink and make their own fortunes suffer. erin delmore, bbc news, new york. we’ve been speaking to professor brian quinn of boston college law school who has been watching the elon musk pay saga. i asked him if the deal will get voted through.

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my sense is that the overall demographic of the shareholding base of tesla is really dominated by retail shareholders, who tend to be a little bit more enthusiastic about the pay package than institutional shareholders. and i don’t think there’s very much doubt that the pay package will pass. and from the legal perspective, it’s not just about the money, is it? from elon musk’s point of view, it’s very much about his influence and control in the boardroom, isn’t it? ie his size of stake in tesla, meaning he can plough ahead with his vision? well, he already owns about 13% of the company’s equity, and he’s made it clear six or seven months ago that he would not want to continue with the business unless he controlled or had the ability to control 25%. and this pay package will basically double his equity claim on the company. so if he earns all the shares that are going to be granted to him, he’ll have about 25% of the company, which...

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that’s important, isn’t it? because if he’s got more than 25%, he then has the biggest say, doesn’t he, on where the company goes and he wants to take it in a direction of ai and robotics and some of the other big shareholders don’t? yeah, well, he’s already the largest shareholder in the company. i think he’s much more concerned about the possibility of activist shareholders, causing him to focus on businesses that he might not want to. his focus right now is on ai and turning tesla into a robotics and ai company. and steering away from its traditional car business. and, brian, just quickly, sorry to interrupt you because we’re really tight on time. if the shareholders did not vote for his pay deal this time, do you think the risk is that he would walk away from tesla? is that really a risk? no, i don’t think so. he already, again, he’s the largest shareholder. if, you know, his pay package, the pay the shares he owns right now could be worth $1 trillion

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at the end of ten years, even without this pay package. if he gets the pay package, he’s likely going to be a double trillionaire if he meets all the goals. so he has plenty of incentive. again, we will watch that and tell you when they shareholders make make their decisions. well, as if to underline the challenges for tesla, two chinese self-driving car companies have been selling shares in hong kong this morning. nick marsh has been watching it for us. this is weride and pony.ai, sally. they’ve started selling their shares in hong kong. it shows you, i think, where the centre of gravity is when it comes to, you know, driverless technology, that sort of thing. in much the same way as has happened with electric vehicles, china has poured so much money, billions and billions into autonomous driving technology. i’ve seen it with my own eyes, sally, i took a ride in guangzhou earlier this year when i was doing some reporting, and i have to say,

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it is very, very impressive. hence why these two companies have listed. and, yeah, they raised quite a bit of money. they raised over $1 billion collectively. but it has to be said, after the trading started this morning in hong kong, shares did slip quite a lot between eight and 11%. now, that’s partly a markets thing. you know, investor enthusiasm in hong kong has dampened a little bit recently. so it’s, you know, kind of bad timing. but it also reflects the wariness that some investors have over this technology. will it become mainstream, can it become mainstream? there’s lots of technical hurdles there and legislative hurdles of course, as well. you know, a future where everyone is riding on the road in autonomous vehicles is still very, very far away. but you just mentioned tesla there as a rival. if it had to go mainstream somewhere, my bet would be in china. still to come. rocking on. how a grassroots campaign is saving britain’s small music venues from extinction.

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president trump’s sweeping use of tariffs on foreign goods has been sharply questioned by justices at america’s supreme court. wednesday’s hearing comes after three lower courts ruled the tariffs illegal. if the supreme court agrees, it could have wide ranging implications for the trump administration and for global trade. our chief north america correspondent gary o’donaghue was there. well, the supreme court spent a couple of hours today listening to the various arguments about the legality and constitutionality of donald trump’s tariffs, this central part of his economic policy. those who are opposed to them, which include a dozen states or so and a whole range of small businesses, argue,

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in effect, that tariffs are a tax and that there’s only one institution in this country that has the ability to impose and raise taxes, and that is congress. and that even under emergency powers, donald trump doesn’t have that ability to impose these tariffs. on the other hand, the counsel for donald trump himself said that the emergency powers act, this international economic emergency powers act, is a broad authority for donald trump, in effect, to do what he likes if he thinks there’s an emergency. they argue that this is a question of foreign affairs, where the president has broad autonomy from congress, and that is why he should be able to do this. there were some interesting questions from some of the more conservative members of the court, perhaps suggesting that they were a little sceptical about the administration’s arguments on tariffs. and certainly, some of the case has been funded, the opposition

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to the tariffs has been funded by conservative business organisations and individuals. so this is by no means a slam dunk for donald trump. what we do expect is that the supreme court, as opposed to waiting as it normally does till the middle of next year to come out with its big rulings, may move much quicker on this one because of its significance. the president himself has said that if he loses, it would be ruinous and catastrophic for the united states. whatever happens, it will certainly shape the rest of his presidency. well, us treasury secretary scott bessent came out of the hearing saying it went very well for the administration. and he told reporters that president trump’s ability to threaten tariffs had been decisive in handling trade relations with china. sometimes the best tariffs are the ones that never get enforced. the president threatened 100% tariffs after the chinese on october 8th threatened to put export controls on rare

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earth magnets from chinese products that had 0.01%. every camera, every iphone here would have been subject to a chinese control. because he had the ability to threaten the 100% tariff, he was able to successfully execute on foreign policy. let’s stay with tariffs because just days after presidents trump and xi agreed a truce in their trade war. shanghai is hosting a huge import fair, where foreign sellers can show off their wares to chinese buyers. beijing has been using the event to project an image of a country supporting free trade as steve mcdonell reports. with the china-us trade war on pause, beijing is using this expo to show the world that this country is not only open for business, but wants to buy your stuff. and certainly, we’ve got plenty of big names from the corporate world here, from mining to cars, insurance, pharmaceutical companies, you name it. in theory, it should be a great time for them

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to be diving into the local market here. but is it really? trade agreements are very important, but let’s make sure those trade agreements are first of all followed. and they’re long enough that we can plan ahead. and just a couple of years is not enough. we need to have agreements that go farther out so that we can be assured we have trading partners to continue to move our pile of soybeans. the high tech sector has been another key point of conflict between china and the us, especially when it comes to the supply of computer chips and advanced software. we’ve got the likes of micron and qualcomm here. neither of these companies wanted to be interviewed by us. and in fact, one of their media people said that right now it’s too sensitive a time to be going on the record when it comes to us companies generally, it seems they are more confident following the xi trump meeting, but that a lot more work needs to be done to really build up business confidence here.

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this is a great start, but can they hold on to it until april? and if they can, april is when president trump says he wants to go to beijing. if it makes it that long, i think there’ll be some real optimism that this is a durable base that people can grow from. this may be an uncertain time to invest, but the companies here know that in china, with its 1.4 billion people, even the smallest increase in sales can mean a lot of money. stephen mcdonell, bbc news, shanghai. finally, to the music business and a battle to save britain’s small grass roots gig venues. small music venues are vital for bands and performers starting out but they have been closing down at an alarming rate. more than a third have gone in the last two decades and most of those remaining will soon see their leases expire. the own our venues campaign is trying to save as many as possible by taking them into long-term community ownership by music fans. it’s just bought the joiners in southampton and the croft in bristol, where the likes of arctic monkeys, coldplay, and oasis played some of their earliest gigs. chris sherrington is campaign manager for own our venues. it’s amazingly critical. we’ve been losing venues for a variety of reasons,

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but one of the key ones is that they just don’t own the buildings that they’re in unlike museums and theatres. and so what we’ve been doing is basically buying the buildings through community ownership, with support from wonderful funders like arts council, and putting them into like a national trust for grassroots music venues. and have you seen a good response to that? sorry? have you seen a good response to that? we have. it’s been amazing from both music fans, from the industry and from funders as well. and people can invest right now. we’ve mentioned two, the joiners, the croft. how many venues have you got on your radar that you’re trying to save? we’ve got another seven this round of campaigning, which ends on november 14th. but there are many more across the country that we’re looking to secure. there’s over 800 grassroots venues that are putting on wonderful gigs for everyone across the uk. and it’s so important, isn’t it, because actually the music sector, the industry has been hit hard for so many reasons.

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we had the pandemic, brexit and now, you know, just the general cost of running and these leases expiring. we have, yeah. but it’s also a wonderful place which has actually bought a massive amount of revenue into the uk. we’re launching the careers, as you mentioned, of artists like ed sheeran, wolf alice, idles, who go on to be wonderful international ambassadors, and they come from the grassroots sector. so who’s out there, chris? who’s the new and up and coming that you’ve heard in these venues that you think could be the next coldplay? well, we’ve seen recently, in the last few years, artists like last dinner party, um, and wolf alice come through these venues. at the moment, i saw some wonderful acts this year, such as fat dog play venues across the country. and it’s so great to see these artists come through and also support the campaign.

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that is in the uk, own our venues. and don’t forget you can get the latest business and economics news, not only on business today,

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live from london, this is bbc news. a state of emergency is declared in the philippines, after typhoon kalmaegi swept across the region killing more than 100 people. police are hunting for two prisoners mistakenly released from a london jail - one of which is a convicted sex offender. several major us airports will see a cut to their flights from friday, if the government shutdown continues. total devastation - the bbc goes inside gaza on a highly controlled visit with the israeli military. i’m sally bundock. in business - a tough call. the bank of england is expected to announce interest rates as the chancellor’s budget looms.

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