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reaching a compromise - the us senate passes a bill that could end the longest government shutdown in history. trade truce - china’s suspension of some tariffs on us goods comes into effect. running out of time - the 30th cop climate summit in brazil faces an uphill struggle as the leaders of major emitters china, india and the us stay away. welcome to business today. i’m ben thompson. we start in the us, where it looks like the beginning of the end of the longest government shutdown in history, as warnings over its impact on the economy grow. the senate has been voting on a deal to extend government

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funding until the end of january after a marathon weekend on capitol hill. the reconcilliation, which had been stalled over health care subsidies, will now have to go through congress before going to the president to sign into law. for 40 days, hundreds of thousands of federal workers have been left without pay, services have been closed and the distribution of food stamps hampered. one sector particularly hit are airports, with increasing numbers of unpaid air traffic controllers not showing up for work, leading to widespread disruption, with some 1,400 flights cancelled on sunday. the congressional budget office says this could cause a permanent us economic loss of between seven to 14 billion dollars. the treasury secretary has warned it could turn economic growth negative. let’s have a listen. we’ve seen an impact on the economy from day one, but it’s getting worse and worse. we had a fantastic economy under president trump

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the past two quarters, and now there are estimates that the economy... economic growth for this quarter could be cut by as much as half if the shutdown continues. william resh is professor of public management and policy at georgia state university. we asked him how much of an impact the shutdown has had. the impact has been immense. this has been the longest shutdown in united states history, surpassing the one in 2019. as you indicated, cbo estimates the gdp to shrink roughly by $10 billion, at the very least. yeah, the impact has already hit us households. we’ve seen snap cuts that have affected not just those who depend on snap, but also the businesses whose economic activity depends on that.

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also fears within the market of substantially impacted stocks, as well. we’ve done quite a bit of research, my colleagues and i, on the impact within agencies and on policy implementation and we’ve found that even agencies where the majority of workers were not furloughed in the past, there have been shutdowns in which only half of agencies were shut down where other where the other half were. but this impacts all agencies because they work together on many programmes. they partner with one another. but the point being is that there is time lost in restarting work. there has been a cutback of critical work and it takes time to start things back up. contracts have lapsed. there have been labs that have been shuttered, etc. so it’s not as simple as just turning back on the lights. these programmes take some time to restart and, with that,

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the economic impacts can lag substantially along with that. to china now, where a cut in tariffs on us imports, which were part of the recent trade truce, have now come into effect. beijing is suspending a blanket 24% additional tariff on all us imports for a year as part of the deal. while keeping a 10% levy introduced in response to president trump’s so-called “liberation day” tariffs, china will now lift a raft of taxes on us farm goods. all of which could be good news for the global economy, as trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies ease. jane foley is head of fx strategy at rabobank. she told us how the currency markets adjusted to the “trump shock” that sparked big moves earlier in the year. well, for instance, if we just look at the value of the dollar. so at the start of the year, the markets were really quite panicked about the impact of tariffs on the us

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economy and therefore on the global economy. and there was a lot of economists looking at the word recession for the us, which would have had significant implications for the rest of us. but that word has now disappeared. people are talking about a cyclical slowdown in the us, not a recession. and as a result, markets are much more calmer. so, for instance, look at the dollar. it fell really solidly at the start of this year. in fact, it’s still the weakest performing g10 currency in the year to date. but if we look at its performance since the second half of the year, well, it’s actually the best performing g10 currency. and that is a mark of the fact that the markets no longer think that the impact of these trade wars are going to be so significant. because really, since the bad news in april, we’ve seen progressive rolling back of these tariff threats. to brazil now, where the latest united nations climate summit, known as cop30, gets under way, but with the event now in its 30th cycle, questions over its ability to deliver

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real results are in the spotlight and questions over who isn’t in attendance. the leaders of the world’s three largest contributors to climate change - china, the us and india - are not attending. with the trump administration pulling out of the 2015 paris climate agreement saying it would not sabotage american industry, the chances of meaningful progress may be slim. peter bakker is ceo of the world business council for sustainable development. good to have you on the programme. what is the point of the the sum if the three largest emitters emitters aren’t even there? well, well, clearly the political tensions tensions in the world and helping. helping. i was at the world leaders leaders summit last thursday and and friday and isa a strong alignment alignment between the heads of states states that were there. we need our

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our cop of action. we need to be be talking now about implementation. implementation. this is a problem problem that needs a global solution. solution. it involves cross-border cross-border cooperation and once once again not only the three largest largest emitters, the three biggest biggest economies are not party to to these discussions and agreements. agreements. if they are not, what what is the point of everybody else else trying to change things if they they are doing their own thing? well, well, i would say two things to do do that. whether or not those leaders leaders show up, it doesn’t mean mean that there not changing. if if you go to china, india, southeast southeast asia, the businesses they they are massively focused on sustainability sustainability and climate action. action. like i said, this is the

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the cop of implementation. on saturday saturday we had 2,000 businesses businesses gathered in the implementation implementation summit, these are are all large companies in charge charge of global supply change. you you will see that these global companies companies will make these actions actions stick. what are these implementations implementations look like? a couple couple of things. we need to encourage encourage policymakers to work on on demand stimulation. there are are plenty of solutions but the uptake uptake in markets is not always that that fast so what can the government government to three procurements, procurements, buyer incentives, to to really get those markets to flow flow faster? the second thing is is how do we bring value chains together? together? in the past companies have have been working individually on on solutions, but now we need to to change how to be changed from from raw materials to m products?

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products? that is a big conversation conversation here, what about the the physical was to supply chains? chains? insurance costs will be going going up, investors are getting more more concerns about those. corporations corporations need to work on resilience. resilience. that will be a big global global conversation, how we keep keep the world safe and supply chains chains up and running. is there gone gone frustration that some of the the rhetoric around climate has shifted, shifted, insomuch that as as there there are some elements who will will ask if we can afford to keep keep global warming within those those limits? and given that we are are seeing from some world traders, traders, the rhetoric that it is is not important and therefore we we shouldn’t do it, that changes changes how we approach this challenge. challenge. i would be foolish to to say that this rhetoric and the the headwinds will be helpful in

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in this debate. clearly not. to your your other point, i think the cost cost of inaction, not working on on climate is far more than not making making these transformations happen. happen. in 90% of the cases, renewable renewable is cheaper than fossil fossil energy. the other point is is of course that the risks are mounting mounting in the supply chains. these these are hard dollars. the insurance insurance costs are going up, certain certain locations will be insurable insurable any more, meaning that that these companies need to take take these risks from their balance balance sheet and that will be very very expensive. there is a clear-cut clear-cut business case for these these actions. good to talk to you, you, peter. now, have you been to a tourist hotspot recently and had to pay a tourism tax? well, that’s been a growing trend as more places encounter over-tourism. the travel industry is expected to outpace global growth over the next decade, despite rising global prices that might have acted as a deterrent. the world travel market has been taking place in london,

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and reporter jagdip cheema went to find out what’s hot and what’s not. the biggest names in the travel industry are here in london. without doubt, one of the hottest topics at the moment is over-tourism. it’s been an issue for the croatian city of dubrovnik. its tourism board is determined to tackle the issue head on. capping the number of the cruise ships, because the influx of people from the cruise ships towards the old city, which is quite narrow and quite limited as far as the space is concerned, was considered as the most important. what was introduced, for instance - one of the measures - was introducing the slots for the coaches arriving to the old city, which means that there are slots that need to be booked, that are controlled and monitored by the people from the tourist board and from the tourist board and the city of dubrovnik.

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translation: we can’t change the measures that the us is taking. we cannot go on amassing debt at the speed that we are. what i i would say in terms of what we are are going to put together as a manifesto manifesto for small business will will be up as much to the 300 businesses businesses in this room and the tens tens of thousands that i believe believe are going to join us, but but don’t underestimate, of course course there are costs to business,... business,... we are bringing you you a little bit of the speech from

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from the leader of reform. he will will be talking about the resignations resignations at the bbc so we will will just listen in. now, onto olivia olivia attlee from a slightly perkier perkier news channel. gb news. what what changes would you make to... to... we are just going to leave leave that speech. we did hear from from the leader of reform uk and and he did say that he believes the the bbc was institutionally biased. biased. we have heard similar remarks remarks from him and his party before.

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before. we have also heard from the the outgoing ceo of bbc news who who arrived at the building this this morning and was asked some questions. questions. he – she denied any any any questions that the bbc was institutionally institutionally biased. we are expecting expecting a statement from the chairman chairman of the bbc. let’s go back back to nigel farage. rather than than the view more broadly about about is out there in the country. country. someone dynamic, some are are from the private sector, someone someone with a history of turning turning run cultures. is it possible? possible? i just don’t know. i mentioned mentioned the wilson report earlier earlier on. that was a big wake-up wake-up call to the bbc 20 years years ago that it had to change culture culture and nothing did.

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one of the biggest bits of red tape that small businesses face at at the moment, one of their biggest biggest complaint is the paperwork paperwork they have to fill out when when they are dealing with the eu eu and sending goods to the eu. you you said you would rip up the government? government? sps deal if you got into into government. wouldn’t that create create much more paperwork for small small businesses across the uk? the the broadcasting landscape at the the moment is dominated by big us us giants. are you worried about about what it would mean for british british culture if the bbc is much much smaller, weaker and less consumes consumes that it is today? then the the bbc should consider what british british culture actually is. applause.

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