Google continues wagering on AI

Deep Research and predictions based on Kalshi and Polymarket data are coming soon to Google Finance.

Credit: Google

Google has announced new features in the popular Google Finance platform, and it leans heavily on Google’s tried-and-true strategy of more AI in more places. This builds on Google’s last Finance update, which added a Gemini-based chatbot. Now, Google is adding Gemini Deep Research to the site, which will allow users to ask much more complex questions. You can also ask questions about the future, backed by new betting market data sources.

The update, which is rolling out over the next several weeks, will add a Deep Research option to the Finance chatbot. The company claims that with the more powerful AI, users will be able to generate “fully cited” research reports on a given topic in just a few minutes. So you can expect an experience similar to Deep Research in the Gemini app—you give it a prompt, and then you come back later to see the result.

You probably won’t want to bother with Deep Research on simple queries—there are faster, easier ways to get that done. Google suggests using Deep Research on more complex things, like the doozy below.

Credit: Google

Everyone will be able to run at least a few Deep Research reports in Finance. There is an unclear limit, but users with AI Pro and AI Ultra subscriptions will enjoy higher Deep Research limits. Google has a cap on Deep Research in the Gemini app, which may or may not be the same. There, free users only get five Deep Research jobs per month. AI Pro gets 20 reports per day, and AI Ultra gets a whopping 200 per day. Given the time it takes to generate even one, it may be difficult to use that many.

Bet on it

Financial markets can turn on a dime, and AI can’t predict the future. However, Google seems to think that people make smart predictions in aggregate when there’s money on the line. That’s why, as part of the Finance update, Google has partnered with Kalshi and Polymarket, the current leaders in online prediction markets.

These platforms let people place bets on, well, just about anything. If you have a hunch when Google will release Gemini 3.0, when the government shutdown will end, or the number of Tweets Elon Musk will post this month, you can place a wager on it. Maybe you’ll earn money, but more likely, you’ll lose it—only 12.7 percent of crypto wallets on Polymarket show profits.

Credit: Google

Google says it will get fresh prediction data from both sites, which will allow Gemini to speculate on the future with “the wisdom of crowds.” Google suggests you could type “What will GDP growth be for 2025?” into the search box. Finance will pull the latest probabilities from Kalshi and Polymarket to generate a response that could include graphs and charts based on people’s bets. Naturally, Google does not make promises as to the accuracy of these predictions.

The new AI features of Google Finance are coming to all US users in the next few weeks, and starting this week, the service will make its debut in India. Likewise, the predictions market data will arrive in the next couple of weeks. If that’s not fast enough, you can opt-in to get early access via the Google Labs page.

Ryan Whitwam is a senior technology reporter at Ars Technica, covering the ways Google, AI, and mobile technology continue to change the world. Over his 20-year career, he’s written for Android Police, ExtremeTech, Wirecutter, NY Times, and more. He has reviewed more phones than most people will ever own. You can follow him on Bluesky, where you will see photos of his dozens of mechanical keyboards.